In the recent phosphate market, with the high price of raw yellow phosphorus stabilizing, and the short-term downstream demand weakening, the export situation did not take a positive turn. In addition, near the end of the off-season, the overall market showed a weak trend of consolidation.
The kinetic energy of yellow phosphorus lifting disappears, and the downstream price rise ends
Since the third quarter of this year, yellow phosphorus, as a high energy-consuming industry that consumes up to 15000 kilowatt-hours of electricity per ton of products, has been under pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction in some major production areas. It has generally encountered restrictions on production suspension and production restriction, and its capacity has been greatly constrained. This has triggered a round of domestic price surge, and its market price has risen to about 17500 yuan (ton price, the same below). Affected by the yellow phosphorus market, the price of downstream phosphate has a wave of tail-up market, such as the price of main varieties of sodium tripolyphosphate and sodium pyrophosphate has also risen from the previous 6000 yuan to about 7000 yuan.
It is generally believed in the industry that the period between now and the end of the year is a critical time for energy conservation and emission reduction in all parts of the country. The main production areas of yellow phosphorus such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Hubei are faced with more stringent regulatory measures for energy conservation and emission reduction. Although the market has a great attraction for yellow phosphorus enterprises, the overall driving rate of yellow phosphorus will not increase due to policy constraints, and the market supply is difficult to increase, so the possibility of yellow phosphorus prices to remain stable in the short term is high, even if there is a decline, Its falling space is also limited. Therefore, under the influence of the stabilizing yellow phosphorus price, this transmission factor has obviously ended the reason for the phosphate price to continue to follow the rising trend, and the sign of the peak has appeared, and its price may decline slightly.
Festivals are fading away and the market is entering the traditional off-season
The third quarter has always been the peak season for phosphate sales, especially before the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day. Food grade phosphate is the golden season of the year and is mainly used in aquatic products, meat products, flour products and dairy products processing industry. However, the off-season after the holiday has come, and there is no greater market demand for phosphate. In terms of demand for industrial grade products, affected by the restriction of phosphorus and phosphorus prohibition of detergents, the demand for sodium tripolyphosphate as a detergent additive has gradually shrunk, and the development of new applications in new fields has been slow. At present, industrial phosphate products are only used in a few traditional fields such as ceramic industry and electroplating industry, and the growth is extremely slow.
At present, manufacturers seem to be eager to expand the use of phosphate products in food processing, feed, medicine, electronics and other fields, but the demand growth in the short term is not satisfactory. According to Zhao Jun, the general manager of Jiangsu Xuzhou Kelong Phosphate Co., Ltd., taking edible phosphate as an example, although there are dozens of varieties produced now, according to China's Hygienic Standard for the Use of Food Additives, there are only more than ten varieties listed in the appendix, including sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium pyrophosphate, sodium dihydrogen phosphate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, trisodium phosphate, potassium tripolyphosphate and sodium hexametaphosphate. Products not included in the catalog are strictly prohibited from being used in food processing, which undoubtedly restricts other varieties from entering the food processing industry. "Every addition of a variety in the catalog requires a lot of experiments, which not only needs the authority department to do, but also requires huge investment and a long experiment period, which is obviously not what the production enterprises can accomplish. Therefore, the water far away from the thirst near, and the market expectation in the near future should not be too high." Zhao Jun said. In addition, the Food Safety Law has been implemented since June 1 of this year. Those who do not follow the variety or maximum use of the food will face high economic penalties. Therefore, there is no obvious market demand for edible phosphate before the end of the year, and the price will not continue to rise.
The export situation is difficult to improve and the industry needs to be eliminated and integrated
Due to the serious internal friction caused by disorderly competition among domestic phosphate enterprises, the export price is always low and the gross profit margin of the industry is very low. Since the implementation of the Notice on the Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates for Some Commodities issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on July 15 this year, more than ten phosphate varieties have been covered, which undoubtedly increases the cost of export enterprises. If the current price of sodium tripolyphosphate is 7000 yuan and the export tax rebate rate is 5%, the export cost will be increased by about 350 yuan. In addition to the advantageous enterprises with the integration of mining, electricity and phosphorus, the general enterprises have lost their enthusiasm for export.
At the same time, the demand of overseas markets for phosphate products in China is also shrinking. Wang Jian, deputy general manager of Sichuan Mianyang Qixing Phosphorus Chemical Co., Ltd., told the reporter: "The historical period of China's large-scale export of phosphate has passed, especially the overseas market capacity of industrial products is gradually shrinking." For the reasons for the export is not optimistic, he said that under the condition of China's technology export, the phosphate industry with low technical content is booming in some developing countries, For example, Tunisia has formed 150000 tons of phosphate production capacity, while Algeria's current phosphate production capacity has crossed the 250000 tons mark. China used to export 400000~600000 tons of phosphate products every year. This is also the fundamental reason why the price of yellow phosphorus in China has risen sharply, while the price of phosphate can only follow the trend and can not keep up with the surge.