In the recent phosphate market, with the price of raw material yellow phosphorus stabilizing at a high level, while the short-term downstream demand has weakened, the export situation has not shown a positive turnaround, and near the end of the year off-season, the overall market is showing a steady trend of weak consolidation.
Yellow phosphorus pulling up momentum disappears, downstream price increase ends
Since the third quarter of this year, yellow phosphorus, as a high-energy-consuming industry that consumes up to 15,000 kWh per ton of products, has been under pressure from energy conservation and emission reduction in some major production areas. It has generally encountered restrictions on production suspension and production limitation, and its production capacity has been greatly restricted. The round price soared, and its market price rose to about 17,500 yuan (ton price, the same below). Affected by the yellow phosphorus market, downstream phosphate prices have followed a wave of rising prices, such as the main varieties of sodium tripolyphosphate and sodium pyrophosphate prices also rose from the previous 6000 yuan to about 7000 yuan.
The industry generally believes that the period between now and the end of the year is a critical moment for energy saving and emission reduction in various regions. The main production areas of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hubei and other regions are facing stricter energy conservation and emission reduction supervision measures, although the market has more There is great temptation, but the overall driving rate of yellow phosphorus will not increase due to policy constraints, and it is difficult to increase market supply. Therefore, the possibility of yellow phosphorus prices maintaining stability in the short term is relatively large, and even if there is a drop, its decline space is limited. Therefore, affected by the stabilization of the price of yellow phosphorus, this transmission factor has obviously ended the reason for the phosphate price to continue to follow the rise. The signs of peaking have appeared, and its price may decline slightly.
The market of festivals gradually drifts away, the market enters the traditional low season
The third quarter has always been the peak season for phosphate sales, especially in the early days of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Food-grade phosphate is the golden season of the year, mainly used in aquatic products, meat products, noodle products, dairy products processing industry. But after the off-season season began, phosphate has no greater market demand. As for the demand for industrial grade products, affected by the restriction of phosphorus and the prohibition of phosphorus, the demand for sodium tripolyphosphate as a washing aid has gradually shrunk, and the development of new fields and new applications has been slow. At present, industrial-grade phosphate products are limited to a few traditional fields such as ceramics and electroplating, and their growth is extremely slow.
At present, manufacturers seem to be eager to expand the use of phosphate products in food processing, feed, medicine, electronics and other fields, but these short-term demand growth is not satisfactory. According to Zhao Jun, general manager of Jiangsu Xuzhou Kelong Phosphate Co., Ltd., taking food-grade phosphate as an example, although there are dozens of varieties now, according to China's "Sanitary Standards for the Use of Food Additives", only three are listed in the appendix More than ten varieties of sodium polyphosphate, sodium pyrophosphate, sodium dihydrogen phosphate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, trisodium phosphate, potassium tripolyphosphate, sodium hexametaphosphate, etc. Products not in the catalog are strictly prohibited from being used in food processing, which undoubtedly restricts other varieties from entering the food processing industry. "Each additional variety in the catalogue requires a large number of experiments, not only the authoritative department, but also a huge investment, and a long experiment period. This is obviously not what the production company can accomplish. Market expectations should not be too high. "Zhao Jun said. In addition, the "Food Safety Law" has been implemented since June 1 this year. Those who are not engaged in food processing according to their prescribed varieties or maximum usage will face high economic penalties. Therefore, there is no obvious market demand for food grade phosphate before the end of the year, and prices will not continue to rise.
The export situation is difficult to improve, the industry needs to be eliminated and integrated
Due to the serious internal friction in domestic disorderly competition among domestic phosphate companies, export prices have not been high and the gross profit margin of the industry is very low. Since the implementation of the "Notice on the Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates for Certain Commodities" issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on July 15 this year, more than ten phosphate varieties have been covered, which has undoubtedly increased the cost of export enterprises. If the current price of sodium tripolyphosphate is 7,000 yuan and the export tax rebate rate is 5%, the export cost will increase by about 350 yuan. This burden, in addition to the advantages of the integration of mine, electricity and phosphorus, the general enterprises have lost their enthusiasm for export.
At the same time, the overseas market's demand for phosphate products in China is also shrinking. Wang Jian, deputy general manager of Sichuan Mianyang Phosphorus Phosphate Chemical Co., Ltd., told reporters: "The historical period of China's massive export of phosphates has passed, especially the overseas market capacity of industrial-grade products is gradually shrinking." He said that the reason for the lack of export In the context of China ’s technological output, the phosphate industry, which is not technically high in itself, is booming in some developing countries. For example, Tunisia has formed 150,000 tons of phosphate production capacity, and Algeria ’s current phosphate production capacity has exceeded 250,000 tons. turn off. China used to export 400,000 to 600,000 tons of phosphate products every year. This is also the fundamental reason why the domestic yellow phosphorus price has risen sharply, and the phosphate price can only follow the trend, but cannot keep up with the soaring.